Will the Sun Devils shine in the dark?

Posted in SPORTS to Illini Football by Chris Willis on Friday, September 16, 2011 at 9:00 am

The Arizona State Sun Devils bring a hot team into Champaign on Saturday night, and not because they're traveling out of the Retirement Belt. So what of the Illini's opponent? Why the heat?

In a nationally televised matchup last Friday, ASU beat then-ranked Missou in overtime. The stadium was packed with black-clad fans for an advertised "blackout effect." The players on the field did their part by wearing uniforms approximating what Phil Knight would design for a combination football game/funeral. Arizona State nearly blew it, giving up a 14 point fourth quarter lead, but eeked it out by a touchdown in overtime.

After that win, Missouri lost its ranking and Arizona State more or less subbed into the Tigers' spots in the polls. How good the Sun Devils really are is something that the pollsters are still hashing out. The AP poll puts them at 22, but the USA Today lines them up at No. 18, a significant discrepancy. This is the nature of the early season: how do you rank teams when many have not played two (or any) well-matched foes? Illinois is certainly in this camp. Arizona State, similarly 2-0, has one foot in both the tested and untested camps. In addition to their win against Missou, the Sun Devils recorded a home-opener victory against University of California-Davis (the Aggies!).

Also generating heat is ASU's quarterback, Brock Osweiler, who was 24 for 32 passing for 353 total yards against Mizzou. Keep in mind that tally somewhat inflated by the inclusion of overtime, but that is still quite a performance. What may or may not be inflated (I've never seen him in person) is his size: he's listed at 6'8" tall and 240 pounds. Yes, we're still talking about the quarterback. Not much is known about him long-term: this is his first season as the full-time starter. But he has certainly looked quite good thus far. Good enough to vindicate those who made Arizona State a trendy pick to win the Pac-12 Championship. Illinois' secondary, much improved over previous years, especially Suppo Sanni (not diminutive hiself at 6'3" and 220 lbs.) will need a big game to keep up.

By now you should be up on how Illinois has looked thus far, and if not, check the Smile Politely archives for full coverage of this season, going back to the spring game. If you're feeling lazy, here's the watercooler recap: they're good. Maybe even really good. We don't know for sure because they haven't been tested yet, but the signs are there.

How is the game likely to break down? The Sun Devils lean hard, hard, hard on the pass: Osweiler is not known to run the ball himself, and their main running back, Cameron Marshall, has only 29 carries for 84 yards through two games this season. Overall, ASU's yards are coming 2 to 1 in favor of the air game. On paper it looks as though the pass rush of the defensive line and the pass defense of the Illinois secondary will be determinative factors for Illinois' defense.

On the other side of the ball, the key question looks to be how well Illinois can keep the running game going. The Illini's offensive coordinator has stated that he plans to spread the carries around as many as four backs to keep fresh runners coming out of the defense, at least through three quarters. Missouri rushed for 4.9 yards per attempt and 182 yards overall against ASU last week. The play of ASU linebacker Vontaze Burfict against the committee of Illini runners will be key: ASU's defense was 16th nationally against the run last year. But don't forget, Illinois' run game has consistently been at the top of the Big Ten and very high in the nation throughout Ron Zook's tenure as head coach. Watch Burfict for another reason: he's got a reputation as not only a hard hitter but also as a flag-magnet who plays dirty. Illinois' veteran offensive line will be motivated to prove their protection abilities against such a national-level linebacker.

The Illini pass game is pretty well known at this point: Scheelhaase is on a streak of 15 TDs v. one interception over the past 9 games going back into last season. Illinois has converted 21 of 29 third downs this year. That will be tested against ASU, who held Mizzou to three third downs out of 15 tries.

The crowd may or may not be a factor. It will be Illinois-dominated, and hopefully an electric atmosphere, since the fans will have had all day to drink before the 6:00 p.m. kickoff. But the game is (sadly) not presently sold out.

So what's the prediction here? Very, very hard to say. If it means anything to you, Vegas oddsmakers and bettors are putting this at pretty much a tossup. In some circles, ASU is a one point favorite, in others Illinois is a 1 point favorite, and yet others put it at dead even. I'm calling a very narrow Illinois win in a barnburner. I'll fully admit that this is a tough call and based more on feel than anything else. Illinois has looked very, very good against lower caliber teams, but I think their play has spoken for itself thus far, and they will show ASU, and the nation, that the doubts have been largely unfounded.

If you're going to be otherwise occupied on Saturday night, be sure to set the DVR for the overage, because this one could easily go to an extra period or three. Kickoff is 6:00 p.m., televised on the Big Ten Network.